Post by account_disabled on Feb 20, 2024 0:51:09 GMT -6
The Spanish Mortgage Association (AHE) believes that during 2024 there will be an improvement in the evolution of residential demand, as the factors that have contributed to the fall in activity in 2023 and have generated uncertainty in the market, such as inflation and high interest rates, stop showing "upside risks", although it calls for "prudence" in the current context, according to the analysis it has carried out on the outlook and trends of the mortgage market for the third quarter of 2023.
In this regard , points out that the market is Chinese Student Phone Number List discounting a lowering of interest rates by the ECB "in the short term", after the "unprecedented" action carried out by the central bank to stop the escalation of inflation. This cut would be supported, according to the AHE, by the recent behavior of economic indicators, which suggest a more moderate advance in nominal GDP and inflation in the eurozone.
In this way, the association hopes that the mortgage will once again take center stage as the main resource for household economies to be able to access housing.
On the supply side, he believes that housing credit will improve to the extent that the horizon is "clearer" and this will act as a "catalyst" on demand.
In absolute values, it considers that activity volumes will maintain a pattern similar to that of recent years, but in relative terms, when compared with a year of falling activity, it expects that 2024 will see positive rates.
As for delinquency , he sees it possible that it will be deteriorated "to some degree", since there is still part of the mortgage portfolio that is pending review in accordance with the most recent increase in interest rates, that is, it has not been The increase in interest rates has been fully transferred (the Euribor has reached above 4% during the second half of 2023) because the 'indexation' mechanism acts with a certain delay.
"This reason may cause doubt to grow somewhat more than what has been observed recently, but in structural terms, it will not be as important because the entities are going to continue with their collection management and portfolio sale operations, and because less balance will be lost and that will generate a positive impact on the ratio due to the effect of the denominator," he explains.
Furthermore, he indicates that the stabilization of interest rates in the heat of the drop recorded by the Euribor since November will have a positive effect on the default ratio.
In this regard , points out that the market is Chinese Student Phone Number List discounting a lowering of interest rates by the ECB "in the short term", after the "unprecedented" action carried out by the central bank to stop the escalation of inflation. This cut would be supported, according to the AHE, by the recent behavior of economic indicators, which suggest a more moderate advance in nominal GDP and inflation in the eurozone.
In this way, the association hopes that the mortgage will once again take center stage as the main resource for household economies to be able to access housing.
On the supply side, he believes that housing credit will improve to the extent that the horizon is "clearer" and this will act as a "catalyst" on demand.
In absolute values, it considers that activity volumes will maintain a pattern similar to that of recent years, but in relative terms, when compared with a year of falling activity, it expects that 2024 will see positive rates.
As for delinquency , he sees it possible that it will be deteriorated "to some degree", since there is still part of the mortgage portfolio that is pending review in accordance with the most recent increase in interest rates, that is, it has not been The increase in interest rates has been fully transferred (the Euribor has reached above 4% during the second half of 2023) because the 'indexation' mechanism acts with a certain delay.
"This reason may cause doubt to grow somewhat more than what has been observed recently, but in structural terms, it will not be as important because the entities are going to continue with their collection management and portfolio sale operations, and because less balance will be lost and that will generate a positive impact on the ratio due to the effect of the denominator," he explains.
Furthermore, he indicates that the stabilization of interest rates in the heat of the drop recorded by the Euribor since November will have a positive effect on the default ratio.